The combat sports landscape is changing fast, and not in the way most fans expect. While UFC prepares to sign a billion-dollar TV deal, MMA analyst Luke Thomas argues that its push into Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu isn’t about growth—it’s about locking up a shrinking market.
According to Thomas, data from Tapology shows that MMA events are steadily declining year after year in the US, Brazil and Russia. Only Japan and parts of Europe are seeing growth. “They’ll still be profitable, but the pie will shrink,” Thomas said, breaking down TKO Group’s strategy.
UFC’s answer? Launching UFC BJJ.
But early numbers suggest the growth may be inflated. Analysis of the UFC BJJ 1 YouTube broadcast showed that nearly 19% of comments followed bot patterns—repeating odd grammar and referencing minor production moments instead of real grappling sequences. The livestream claimed 750,000 views in twelve hours, a number that raised more questions than excitement.
Meanwhile, one of the sport’s only vocal critics of promoter control is stepping away. Craig Jones recently said he’s likely retiring from competitive grappling after CJI 2. He’s spent years pushing for better pay and transparency.
“The financial literacy among the athletes in this business is… it’s not high,”
he said, referring to top athletes who sign contracts without reading them.
Jones’ departure leaves a vacuum at a critical moment. Through CJI, he pushed back against the promotional model.
“I’ve been able to get away with a lot on social media. That’s helped me build a profile and make money. So I understand the challenge athletes face in trying not to be used by promoters,”
Jones said. Now, even that challenge is fading.
Thomas points out this is part of a wider consolidation. UFC is also lobbying to amend the Ali Act so it can create its own boxing titles—currently illegal under US law. And with Saudi funding behind them, they’ve already begun moves into boxing.
“They already have WWE. They already have UFC. If they can take over boxing with Saudi money, great,”
Thomas said.
BJJ, in comparison, is easy to dominate. The sport has no centralized regulation, athlete pay is inconsistent, and major platforms are scattered. Andrew Tackett and others signing exclusive deals with UFC could limit their visibility outside the promotion. Pair that with questionable metrics and the risk becomes clear—BJJ athletes may be trading long-term opportunity for short-term contracts.
That mentality, along with artificial metrics and exclusive contracts, suggests a strategy built to appear dominant long before it actually is.
Thomas summed it up:
“BJJ is, you would think, there for the taking. And this would consolidate their position relative to decline.”
Whether athletes and fans recognize what’s happening before it’s too late remains to be seen. But the direction is clear—less competition, more control and a sport that’s easier to shape once the independent voices are gone.
