In a wide-ranging conversation on the Mighty Cast with former UFC flyweight champion Demetrius Johnson, Luke Thomas outlined a compelling theory connecting several troubling trends in modern MMA. When Johnson asked why the heavyweight division has deteriorated so dramatically compared to its golden era of Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos and Daniel Cormier, Thomas didn’t hesitate:
“Not enough talent.”
But the talent deficiency isn’t random. Thomas pointed to verified data from Tapology showing that MMA events in the sport’s three largest markets—the United States, Brazil and Russia—have been declining year-over-year for several years. While Japan shows slight growth and Europe remains uncertain, the biggest MMA markets are contracting when they should be expanding.
“I think the growth of sport jiu-jitsu is absolutely affecting the pipeline to MMA.”
Thomas stated emphatically. He cited the example of Michael Pixley from team Daisy Fresh, a dynamic D2 national wrestling champion whose collar ties, foot sweeps and throws make him captivating to watch.
“A guy like that would have for sure done MMA in a different world,”
Thomas explained.
“But you can get pro sponsorships in jiu-jitsu now. You can do instructionals and all of a sudden, you can make a real decent living without getting your head bashed in.”
The economic calculus has fundamentally changed. Where previous generations of elite grapplers like Ronaldo Jacare Souza used their ADCC championships and Mundials titles as credentials to launch lucrative MMA careers, today’s generation has viable alternatives. Craig Jones has openly discussed how competitive losses can directly impact instructional sales—creating a financial incentive structure that rewards consistent performance in submission grappling rather than the unpredictable costly nature of MMA.
Thomas also identified another significant factor draining talent from MMA’s pipeline: Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) deals in college athletics. Elite wrestlers who once viewed MMA as their best path to financial security can now earn substantial money while still in college. Johnson recounted meeting a high school quarterback whose family was grappling with how to help him manage a $500,000 NIL deal—far more than many professional MMA stars earn annually, particularly in their early careers.
The financial disparity becomes even more striking when comparing MMA to boxing. Thomas referenced expert testimony from legendary promoters Bob Arum, Lou DiBella and Oscar De La Hoya in the UFC antitrust lawsuit, which demonstrated that boxing headliners typically take home 60–80% of total event revenue. By contrast, evidence suggests UFC athlete compensation hovers around 20% or less of revenue—a fraction of what athletes receive in boxing or major professional sports leagues with collective bargaining agreements.
This compensation structure, Thomas argued, creates long-term consequences for talent recruitment.
“If you are a heavyweight of any considerable skill, even one who might have done wrestling at an elite level, if you don’t really believe that there is enough financial incentive to get into MMA, are you going to do it?”
he asked rhetorically.
“I could imagine a world where you get some short- and even medium-term gains from having a simplified system. But if that system is designed to control and limit the amount of athlete compensation that is available… long-term, if people don’t believe that they can get the kind of financial returns from boxing that they once could have, or that they think the damage to the brains is worth their time—what does that do long term?”
Johnson, who successfully transitioned from championship competing to becoming one of MMA’s most successful content creators, acknowledged the shifting landscape. He noted how the UFC’s new $7.7 billion media deal with Paramount eliminates pay-per-view points for competitors, fundamentally changing the compensation structure even for championship-level athletes. Without pay-per-view incentives, the pathways to generational wealth in MMA narrow considerably.
